India is expected to witness above-normal rainfall in July 2025, a development likely to bolster agricultural productivity and provide a lift to the broader economy.
“The monthly average rainfall across the country in July is most likely to exceed 106% of the long-period average (LPA),” according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) senior official during a virtual press briefing on Monday. The LPA for July stands at 280.4 mm, based on data spanning from 1971 to 2020.
Rainfall Update: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions
The IMD attributed this optimistic outlook to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Climate projections, including those from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), indicate these neutral conditions are likely to continue throughout the remaining monsoon months. ENSO is a critical climatic phenomenon that affects sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation in the Pacific, significantly influencing India’s monsoon patterns.
Rainfall in June
India recorded 180 mm of rainfall in the month of June, surpassing the monthly norm of 165.3 mm. This marked the 41st highest June rainfall since 1901 and the 9th highest since 2001, as per the IMD official. Regions across northwest, central and southern India received normal to above-normal rainfall, although parts of the Northeast and Himalayan foothills experienced below-normal precipitation.
These favourable monsoon patterns have already begun to translate into increased agricultural activity. As of June 27, the total area sown under kharif crops reached 26.21 million hectares, up 11.3% from 23.54 million hectares during the same time last year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.
While much of the country is projected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall in July, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a cautionary note for certain regions. Below-normal rainfall is anticipated in large parts of Northeast and Eastern India, as well as in sections of the extreme southern peninsula and isolated areas in the Northwest.
In terms of temperature, the weather office expects the monthly average maximum temperatures to stay normal to below normal across most regions. However, above-normal temperatures may persist in parts of the Northeast, East India, Northwest and the southern peninsula, the department added.